% PURPOSE: An example of model comparison using sar_g() function
%          to compare various weight matrix specifications
%          (on a small data set)                  
%---------------------------------------------------
% USAGE: compare_weights2
%---------------------------------------------------

clear all;

% W-matrix from Anselin's neigbhorhood crime data set
load anselin.dat; 
latt = anselin(:,4); % latitude, longitude coordinates 
long = anselin(:,5); % are all we use here

% create W-matrix based on nearest 3 neighbors
W3 = make_nnw(latt,long,3);


% generate an sar model based on 4 nearest neighbors
n = length(latt);
IN = eye(n); 
rho = 0.7;  % true value of rho
sige = 0.2;
k = 3;
x = randn(n,k);
x(:,1) = ones(n,1);
beta(1,1) = -1.0;
beta(2,1) = 0.0;
beta(3,1) = 1.0;

vnames = strvcat('y','constant','x1','x2');
    
% sar model generated here
% based on nearest 3-neighbors W-matrix, (W3 from above)

y = (IN-rho*W3)\(x*beta) + (IN-rho*W3)\(randn(n,1)*sqrt(sige)); 


% estimate 5 models using W1 to W5 as weight matrices

% run 5 homoscedastic models
prior.g = (1/n);
W1 = make_nnw(latt,long,1); % create W-matrix based on nearest 1 neighbor
results1 = sar_c(y,x,W1,prior);
% prt(results1,vnames);  NOTE: we cannot use prt here since there are no estimates to print           
W2 = make_nnw(latt,long,2); % create W-matrix based on nearest 2 neighbors
results2 = sar_c(y,x,W2,prior);
% prt(results2,vnames);
W3 = make_nnw(latt,long,3); % create W-matrix based on nearest 3 neighbors
results3 = sar_c(y,x,W3,prior);
% prt(results3,vnames);
W4 = make_nnw(latt,long,4); % create W-matrix based on nearest 4 neighbors
results4 = sar_c(y,x,W4,prior);
% prt(results4,vnames);
W5 = make_nnw(latt,long,5); % create W-matrix based on nearest 5 neighbors
results5 = sar_c(y,x,W5,prior);
% prt(results5,vnames);

% compare 5 homoscedastic models based on 5 different weight matrices
fprintf(1,'posterior probabilities for 5 homooscedastic models \n');
fprintf(1,'based on W-matrices for neighbors 1 to 5 \n');
probs = model_probs(results1, results2, results3, results4, results5);

rnames = strvcat('Homoscedastic Models');
for j=1:5
    rnames = strvcat(rnames,['neighbors ',num2str(j)]);
end;
in.rnames = rnames;
in.cnames = strvcat('Model Probabilities');
fprintf(1,'True model is based on 3 neighbors \n');
mprint(probs,in);

ndraw = 1100;
nomit = 100;

% Now run 5 heteroscedastic models
prior2.rval = 4;      % heteroscedastic prior 
W1 = make_nnw(latt,long,1); % create W-matrix based on nearest 1 neighbor
results6 = sar_g(y,x,W1,ndraw,nomit,prior2);
% prt(results6,vnames);  NOTE: we can use prt here, but we only want to see the posterior model probabilities       
W2 = make_nnw(latt,long,2); % create W-matrix based on nearest 2 neighbors
results7 = sar_g(y,x,W2,ndraw,nomit,prior2);
% prt(results7,vnames);
W3 = make_nnw(latt,long,3); % create W-matrix based on nearest 3 neighbors
results8 = sar_g(y,x,W3,ndraw,nomit,prior2);
% prt(results8,vnames);
W4 = make_nnw(latt,long,4); % create W-matrix based on nearest 4 neighbors
results9 = sar_g(y,x,W4,ndraw,nomit,prior2);
% prt(results9,vnames);
W5 = make_nnw(latt,long,5); % create W-matrix based on nearest 5 neighbors
results10 = sar_g(y,x,W5,ndraw,nomit,prior2);
% prt(results10,vnames);

% compare 5 heteroscedastic models based on 5 different weight matrices
fprintf(1,'posterior probabilities for 5 heteroscedastic models \n');
fprintf(1,'based on W-matrices for neighbors 1 to 5 \n');
probs2 = model_probs(results6, results7, results8, results9, results10);

rnames = strvcat('Heteroscedastic Models');
for j=1:5
    rnames = strvcat(rnames,['neighbors ',num2str(j)]);
end;
in.rnames = rnames;
in.cnames = strvcat('Model Probabilities');
fprintf(1,'True model is based on 3 neighbors \n');

mprint(probs2,in);

% now compare all 10 models

probs = model_probs(results1,results2,results3,results4,results5,results6,results7,results8,results9,results10);

rnames1 = [];
for j=1:5
    rnames1 = strvcat(rnames1,['homoscedastic neighbors ',num2str(j)]);
end;
rnames2 = [];
for j=1:5
    rnames2 = strvcat(rnames2,['heterocedastic neighbors ',num2str(j)]);
end;

rnames = strvcat('ALL models',rnames1,rnames2);

in.rnames = rnames;
in.cnames = strvcat('Model Probabilities');
fprintf(1,'True model is based on 3 neighbors \n');
mprint(probs,in);


